Markets often do not behave rationally when faced with macroeconomic data. Investors try to predict what will be announced or what will be said by leaders or persons responsible for monetary policy in a given country. Many retail investors forget that information that was previously known to a small group of dishonest people is included in the price several hours before the event. Currently, at 8 p.m. European time, we expect FOMC economic forecasts and a statement. The events of such events cause market movements that are trying to “catch” but with very different results. I personally do not participate in such a market because I have the opportunity every day and I do not need to risk it.
The currency pair we are discussing is currently in the area of a resistance that may be broken, but until then we have a downtrend, even though the trend is extremely corrective. From the beginning of the month, it looks more like a consolidation than a trend, but a trained eye will see that, after all, lows and highs are getting lower.