GfK’s research this month shows growing confidence in personal finances and spending, but expectations for the economy have fallen again in the coming year.
Following the lifting of most restrictions in the UK, consumer confidence has risen above pre-pandemic levels, according to the latest GfK Consumer Confidence Index.
The overall index for July is -7, which represents six months of steady improvement. In March 2020, the last month before the lockdown, consumer confidence hit a score of -9.
“It looks like we’ve eliminated most of Covid’s influence with this measure,” says Marketing Week, GfK’s director of customer strategy Joe Staton.
Staton also notes consumer willingness to spend money, with July’s top purchasing rate at the 2 highest since last February and a “healthy” 7-point increase since June. This is in line with strong retail sales growth data reflecting the gradual opening of UK high streets and the release of pent-up demand.
“But marketers know we’re now seeing the first wave of people letting go by treating family gatherings, shopping, evening outings, vacations and other activities that have long been out of reach,” he explains.
“Is he balanced? Marketers will hope so, but they will also know that consumers need to see better Covid numbers first. The sooner it happens, the better. “
Nevertheless, people still feel confident about their personal finances situation in the coming year, and the forecast remains steady at 11 for the second month. This is 11 points more than at that time last year.
However, expectations about the overall economic situation for the next 12 months are less positive, as they fell by another 3 points to -5.
According to Staton, this is likely to reflect the dangers of rising consumer price inflation, new Covid variants and rising infection rates, as well as the approaching end of vacation. Which may have an impact on the situation we saw on the charts in 2018, where after a strong increase in the GBPUSD price, the price of the currency pair fell. If we look closely, we will see an almost identical image to the one that is drawing on the chart at the moment (second image below). Currently, further growth is possible after breaking the local resistance, but personally I am looking to deepen the price low before a rebound.