Today’s reading of non-farm payrolls, i.e. changes in the non-agricultural sector in the USA, will be extremely important. It will show whether the FED has a place to maintain a loose monetary policy, or whether it must aim at tightening it.
Paradoxically, a good reading can be both “good” and “bad” from the investors’ point of view. What is worth paying attention to is not the very value of new jobs, but whether there are more people willing to work on the market – and this is shown by the labor market participation rate. This may be the main factor behind the further appreciation of the US dollar, which has been weakening for so long.
The image with the data shows optimistic forecasts, and we are counting on them. Looking at the currency pair chart, you can see a strong downtrend and we take this position into account. Even today, however, I recommend caution as we still have the beginning of the month with data that may be confusing on the charts.